Health Canada releases COVID-19 modelling

Health Canada signage at Tunney’s Pasture in Ottawa. Source: Jolson Lim/iPolitics

Date Published: April 9, 2020

Source: The Toronto Star

Health Canada and The Public Health Agency of Canada released their projections on the evolving COVID-19 pandemic today. They stressed that their projections were only estimates and that the ultimate trajectory of the epidemic in Canada depended on the actions that people in Canada took in the weeks and months moving forward. This includes strategies such as physical distancing, stringent hand hygiene, and respiratory etiquette – in addition, they stated that their best case scenarios depend on ongoing restrictions to domestic and international travel, case detection, and isolation and quarantine measures. By April 16, 2020, they are forecasting between 22,580 to 31,850 cases, resulting in 500 to 700 deaths. Their long term modelling suggests the possibility of between 11,000 to 300,000 deaths cumulatively over the course of the epidemic, depending on our ability to adhere to strong public health measures.

Watch the press conference here:,

Summary by: Vincent Tang